Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones believes the S&P 500 would plunge 25% if Sen. Elizabeth Warren clinches the 2020 election, but sees another 15% upside for the market if President Donald Trump wins re-election.
Speaking from the Greenwich Economic Forum, Jones explained that an internal poll at his investment firm found that employees believe the S&P 500 could swoon to 2,250 if Warren comes out on top.
“Her policies would – assuming they were implemented – probably give you something like that,” he said. “As an investor, you have to have a view on the election because the outcomes are so extreme. I’ve never seen this kind of polarity in elections as we have now.”
The same Tudor survey found that the firm expected the stock market to rally about 15% to 3,600 if Trump secures a second term. If Democrats Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg are elected, the index could hover around 2,700, he said.
The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite all notched all-time highs on Monday as easing worries about the U.S.-China trade war, strong corporate profits and investor sentiment continue to usher equities higher.
Jones also critiqued those who’d claim a president has little impact on the direction of the stock market.
“It does make a difference. Ronald Reagan, when he became president, was a huge difference to the stock market,” Jones said from Greenwich, Connecticut. “And I would say who the next president is is also going to have a huge impact on the economy and the stock market, particularly asset pricing.”
“This one is going to be more meaningful than any one certainly in my lifetime,” he added.
Jones isn’t the only noted investor worried about a fall in stock prices under a potential Warren presidency. Hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman, for example, has repeatedly blasted the Massachusetts Democrat for her proposed wealth tax and her less-than-rosy characterization of fellow billionaires.
“I don’t need Elizabeth Warren telling me that I’m a deadbeat and that billionaires are deadbeats. The vilification of billionaires makes no sense to me. The world is a substantially better place because of Bill Gates, Michael Bloomberg, David Rubenstein, Bernie Marcus, Ken Langone,” Cooperman said on Monday.
“This is idiocy! It’s appealing to the lowest common denominator and basically trying to turn people’s heads around by promising a lot of free stuff,” he added.
One of Warren’s central campaign promises — and a policy pariah on Wall Street — is to impose a 2% tax on households with a net worth of above $50 million and a 3% on household net worth over $1 billion. The senator has said that revenues generated from the tax would be used to help pay for policy initiatives like better education, Medicare for All or environmentally friendly programs.
Opponents like Cooperman claim that the wealth tax would unduly punish those who’ve made their fortunes from hard work and innovation. Proponents claim, however, that economic disparity in the U.S. remains a problematic and pernicious issue and that more progressive ideas are needed to be done to remedy wide disparities in household wealth.
For his part, Jones appears to prefer South Bend, Indiana, mayor Pete Buttigieg in the 2020 presidential race. He reportedly praised the politician at a recent gala.
“I love Pete, I love Mayor Pete, because I think he would be the best administrator to run this country, and he’s got a compassionate heart,” the billionaire investor said at a recent gala, according to a report. “He’s my man.”
Though Jones added at the time that he’s not politically active, the hedge fund manager has given to both Republicans and Democrats in the past, including in the last 12 months.