Tesla investor sees, worst case, a stock double by 2024, saying she has numbers to back it up

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Ark Investment Management founder and CEO Catherine Wood told CNBC on Monday that, in the worst scenario, she sees Tesla stock nearly doubling by 2024.

“We have our ‘bear price,’ five-year target as $700,” said Wood, whose firm owns a considerable stake in the electric auto maker. “That would be if they lost two-thirds of market shares and had no autonomous” vehicles.

Shares of Tesla closed at $335.89 each on Friday. In a volatile year, the stock bottomed out in June under $200, before climbing back to a nearly 1% gain for 2019. For comparison, the S&P 500 is up 25% for the year.

Wood first predicted in February 2018 that Tesla would one day trade at $4,000 per share, which translates into a stock market value of $720 billion. Tesla’s market cap, as of Friday’s close, was $60.5 billion.

Currently, Tesla holds about a 17% market share of global electric vehicle sales, Wood said Monday on “Squawk Box.”

“Our ‘bear price’ says they’ll lose two thirds going to 6%,” she explained. “Our ‘bull case,’ used to be they would lose one third of the market share going down to 11%. We are rethinking that, because they have been maintaining that 17% market share over time. And so it’s quite possible that they could gain share.”

That’s a stark contrast from the many short sellers, who are betting against Tesla, and analysts who believe the stock could be headed off a cliff.

Morgan Stanley in May cut its worst-case forecast on Tesla stock to $10 per share from $97, citing concerns about the company’s geopolitical exposure and increased debtload.

However, last week, Morgan Stanley increased its bull case for Tesla to $500 per share. Though Morgan Stanley’s “base case” price target was kept at $250 and the “bear case” remained at $10.

“To be clear, we are not bullish on Tesla longer term, especially as, over time,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said in last week’s note to clients.

Addressing Wall Street naysayers, Wood said Monday, “I think they’re ignoring a lot of realities” such as the company’s stronghold on artificial intelligence and the real world miles it’s collecting.

Back in June, Ark explained its Tesla valuation model.

If Tesla does solve for full autonomy, however, and its electric vehicle (EV) production surpasses our bear case estimates, TSLA could scale significantly higher than our previous $4,000* price target during the next five years, thanks to our newly introduced bull case for electric vehicle volumes.


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